Hobbies are activities that one enjoys performing irrespective of their professional or personal barriers. With such a variety of hobbies for girls, you could choose any of them and start right away. There are many cuisines throughout the world, which I am sure you are waiting to learn more about.
Other than matching your clothes, shoes, makeup, and accessories with each other, there are many other interesting things young teenage girls can indulge in. There are so many culinary secrets waiting to be revealed, and if you love cooking, this is what you should do. Like I said earlier, you need to know what you like first and the rest will follow. One of these is knitting as a hobby. One way of making good use of this facility is to harbor your interest in writing or poetry by blogging. For a group of young girls, this one’s surely one of the fun hobbies.
Baking and Cooking
As a natural instinct in women, baking and cooking various delicious foods is also one of the most popular hobbies for girls. However, if you are ready to create in the true sense of the word, then go for it!
Since childhood and adolescence is the perfect age of learning new things and developing your interests, many parents and teachers inculcate hobbies in children. In the paragraphs below, we have a list of hobbies and interests which you could use, so read on and take your pick.
Another way to channel your creativity is to make beautiful and attractive jewelry, such as earrings, necklaces, bracelets, etc. Because of that affection, you put in your whole heart and concentration in doing it perfectly, and eventually might even excel in it. Their talents as writers are appreciated, which is definitely a healthy use of the Internet. When you discover that you like doing something, you develop an affection towards it. So, find out what’s that one thing that is meant only for you and go ahead with it.
All teenagers are used to using the Internet very often for various purposes, such as networking, finding information, enrolling to online courses, etc. Sure, it sounds boring and slow, but if you like to use your creativity in color scheming, this is surely where you could use it. They are very easy to make and all you need is some unique designs and patterns. When you are at a learning age, such as teenage, developing an interest and using it to strike a balance is very essential. Using various types of wood, you could create many new objects, such as tables, chairs, toys, shelves, and other furniture. When you excel in it, you receive appreciation, because of which you want to continue practicing that special interest. But, you will surely have to work slightly hard in this hobby, as holding equipment for wood working could be a difficult thing. You can use your creativity in baking by preparing unique cakes and cookies, with lovely toppings and decorations; while in cooking, you could use it in discovering various new flavors and spices, which can affect the taste of any particular dish. Using various color combinations could make this job easy. Blogs help teenage girls to get an audience for their short stories, articles, or poetry. As writing and reading also helps in many other ways, such as relieving your tensions and strengthening you emotionally, it could be a great hobby for teenage girls.
Even though this hobby is more of a “guy thing”, you can surely use it if you are interested in building things from wood. Depending on the level of their interest, these hobbies could be made into their professions as well. Therefore, girls are subjected to sports, books, art and drama, languages, pottery, and other interests in schools and colleges. There are many types of handmade jewelry which you could try making, such as hemp jewelry, bead loom jewelry, stone jewelry, etc., and these could be sold as well. They are stress-busters that help in keeping a calm mind so that you are physically and emotionally healthy. There are various types of hobbies which kids can follow. Even though there is no particular age to pursue your interests, starting them at an early age is always advisable.
The mechanism of humans having hobbies is very interesting to know. Making beautiful woolen scarves, mufflers, sweaters, booties, caps, etc., could be a time-consuming as well as economical hobby for starters.
Shortly after the dream we were informed that my father was very seriously ill and we had to return home at short notice. We are powerless puppets enslaved within an inflexible and inescapable destiny.
My father and grandmother were very close, and my father often used to drive my grandmother to various places. But tomorrow, the day after, next week, next year and so on, until the end of the universe, are already in the can. An example appearing to relate to England’s Princess Diana is:
The last son of the man with the prophet’s name
will bring Diana to her day of rest.
At a distance they wander in frenetic grief.
Delivering a great people from ruin.
Around 200 people reported having premonitions including choking, coal dust, and children screaming shortly before the 1966 Aberfan disaster in which a pile of coal waste slid down a mountain burying a school and killing 144 children and adults.. So what is going on?
Actually, we can all predict the future to a degree, simply based upon our general understanding and knowledge of present conditions. On checking the football results I found I had won a minor dividend, an event of somewhat less than a 2% probability. Shortly after my grandmother passed away at 91 my father suffered a recurrence of a long-standing stomach condition. How it may have delivered “a great people” from ruin remains unclear. Dunne published an account and possible explanation of his experiences in the classic An Experiment With Time (Studies in Consciousness). If Manchester United (a leading English soccer team) plays a non-league side we may reasonably predict that United will win easily. Today many of us consult psychics, hoping for a glimpse of what tomorrow has in store. All day long I repeated my belief to my family. Our first reaction might be one of excitement and joy. Applying his scientific training to the phenomena, Dunne began recording and analyzing his dreams. Despite the world appearing to be orderly and obeying the laws of cause and effect, science has discovered that at its most fundamental level the physical world is anything but orderly with each basic particle appearing to behave randomly. This means the future already exists, and our existence is a bit like being in a(n already made) movie. As he had the problem several times before we expected him to make a full recovery as usual.
Wouldnt that be nightmarish?
We should also note the possibility of the self-fulfilling prophecy. He found that his dreams contained images of the past and of the future in equal measure. Not only did the dreams foretell major events, but also frequently predicted life’s trivia. One night I dreamed my father was again driving my grandmother somewhere, a dream which I remarked on to my wife. Their own higher self has only to extrapolate to create images of doom, but of course the plane might survive its journey without incident, or the terrorist may be thwarted in his attempt to carry out his ghastly act.
Lets suppose that we really can predict the future with certainty. And we will most probably be right.
Psychics, and mediums by virtue of their contact with the Spirit world, have access to more information about the present than might generally be known through purely physical/sensory means. Nostradamus’s predictions were written in somewhat obscure language in the form of quatrains, published under the title Centuries. I have never felt such a conviction before or since.
Similarly in premonitions of disaster perhaps some sensitives might become aware of a loose bolt in an aircraft wing, or see a terrorist manufacturing a bomb is some dark cellar. However, history is littered with examples of apparently amazing precognition.
Quite often I find parallels between my dreams and (usually insignificant) events that happen shortly after.
The father of Diana’s partner in her fatal car crash, Dodi, was named Mohamed. Due to their obscurity it is usually only after the event that their accuracy is recognized. Where we believe that something will happen we consciously, and/or subconsciously, create the present conditions that increase its likelihood.
J W Dunne, a pioneering aeronautical engineer of the late 19th, early 20th century, began noticing that some of his dreams were prescient. Her passing caused an outpouring of grief around the world. Popular newspapers and magazines invariably feature a horoscope column, and who wouldnt like a sneak preview of next weeks winning lottery numbers.
Fortunately. The Old Testament has numerous books of prophecy, though strangely many Christian fundamentalists now denounce fortune telling as a sin. Those winning lottery numbers are out there somewhere, ready for the taking.
Perhaps they can pick up an internal conflict in one football team, but a much greater sense of purpose and harmony in their equally matched opponents. Then the psychic has an edge in predicting the result of a match between the two, but might still be wrong.
Does the future already exist?
Having concluded that the future doesnt exist, it follows that it cannot be predicted.
The most famous prophet is surely Nostradamus, the 16th century French physician. What we perceive as now is simply the frame currently being projected on the screen. I dont believe the true nature of reality to be that of fixed destiny.
Common sense (and for me the certainty of experience) suggests these accounts cant possibly all be wrong. Nothing we say, or think, or feel, or do really matters a jot. Less than two weeks later he passed away.
From time immemorial humankind has tried to gain advance knowledge of things to come. Usually, because we observe zillions of these tiny particles acting together, their individual randomness averages out and we perceive the illusion of order.
And from the authors own experience:
Is it really possible to tell the future? To answer that question we need to examine the fundamental nature of reality.
According to this model mediums and psychics can’t predict the future with 100% certainty, but they can predict with an accuracy significantly in excess of that suggested by the laws of probability.
Examples of Precognition
Can psychics and mediums predict the future?
One Saturday as a child of about ten I became convinced that I would win the football pools (a kind of English lottery based on soccer results). I had to leave the country but was not unduly worried as my father was under medical treatment. But lets think again
Most of the people have turned the sports betting into the money-making undertaking, as well. Sports betting guidelines will help a person determine whether persons are placing persons bet on the finest team to succeed. If persons are an intelligent bettor a person will need to struggle to get as more information as a person can before actually leasing go of person’s money. One of the most significant sports betting tips as well advice against staking on persons favorite team. The latter just bets without hassling to do their study. It is also suitable to read up happening the players of every team to help a persons assess which way a person want to place persons bet. If a person wants to try persons hand at building sports betting a gainful activity, there are lots of matters a person will need to recognize to ensure persons success.
Many people who like gambling and taking options have turned the sports betting into exciting hobby. Interest should not only be the verdict factor in the sports betting, a person has to have the aspiration to know enough concerning the game to establish persons chances of succeeding. In the sports betting, here is a marked differentiation between populace who stake on sporting win and events, and those who position lose and wagers.
A good imperative of thumb is while a person cannot locate it in a person to bet against person’s favorite team, they do not bet for them, also. Having personal preference supported on emotion can guide to a better creation bad betting judgments.. So, there are lots of tips, which will apprise persons as to which performer did not train very fine that season.
Many people who like gambling and taking options have turned the sports betting into exciting hobby.
The former have in used the time to incorporate enough awareness about the sporting occasion they stake on
Roulette is no exception. The random program installed into these systems which distributes the numbers is only random within its probability quota.
. However it may not come in for 70 – 80 spins but then you will find it may come in 2-3 times within 10 spins. While admittedly one of the more difficult games to gain an edge in, I have found a few systems that really do make a difference. Please see http://www.insidersystem.com for the latest winning tips and strategies.
This article was posted on December 07, 2005
The random program installed into machines has number allocated occurrence probability. However this is not enough to invest money in chasing set numbers; however it compliments our FORCE THE ZERO system.
Force the Zero
Yes it’s true: Ellison Mansfield has made a career out of gambling. Here is an introduction to one of those systems.
Well firstly it ensures a fair number allocation and obviously if youre chasing a set number you know it will eventually come in. If you place equal bets on Red and Black every spin you will never lose any money, except for when 0 is drawn.
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Roulette System To Improve Your Odds And Win More
by: Ellison Mansfield
If you’ve read any of my articles before, you know I always emphasize the fact that there are many viable systems for any type of gambling. When you keep betting Red and Black you will keep winning on color bets (even though you break even because you have bet on both Red and Black), but the computer registers a winning color bet every time so therefore we have discovered that that the color Green 0 starts to be drawn a lot more to combat the constant wins on Red and Black. This means that every number is given a 1/37 chance of being drawn (0 & 18 Red 18 Black). Until next time, I hope this information has got you salivating for roulette wins at your favorite casino!
The method is based on an electronic failure on a random computer program installed into internet and electronic terminals. Unlike real table roulette in a casino where a number is never guaranteed to be drawn, computer generated roulette has to provide a balance of numbers ensuring over a large total of spins each number would have been drawn a similar amount of times (within a few percent), this few percent is called the ‘realistic waiver’ which is supposed to add realism to computer generated roulette.
This system is very simple, bear in mind the above explanation of number allocations. After holding onto these secrets and amassing a private fortune over the past 16 years, he finally decided it was time to come out and share some of his knowledge with the world. However we have discovered a unique factor. Therefore bets on Green 0, Red and Black with a bet placement structure provide the basis of our system. This system has been tried and tested on numerous occasions on internet casino roulette and roulette betting terminals with fantastic results (see http://www.insidersystem.com/roulette.html). He’s flown under the radar for virtually his entire adult life, beating the casinos and stockpiling his winnings. The System also relies on target structure so that substantial profits can be made and continued.
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How Does This Help?
About The Author
What Does This Mean?
There are four simple steps required to use this system, which I will be revealing in a future article
Do not bet based on yourself drive but based on the knowledge you have on the game.
of money you earn depends on the decision you make before you bet. It is good to keep in mind that having good betting skills will be the best winning strategy that will see you earn good cash.
When you are learning on how to win at sports betting, it is good to have knowledge of
Betting is a gambling game. sharpening the betting skills. This is a game where you are not aware of the tips to use to win or lose. Betting is a game where the chances of winning are equal to the chances of losing. This means that you should be able to make good decision that will see you win at the end of the game. You should also know the bets and the payments to be given. You can only improve these skills if you are keen. If for example you are betting on football, you should have crucial information about football. Picking on the team you think has all it takes to be winner will be the crucial decision that will add value to your bet.
A good bettor should learn on how to win at sports betting by making use of the internet.
. Having the knowledge of the bets will enable you to be ready for the results. You should accept defeat because there is always a winner and a loser in any game. Knowing how to win at sports betting will be the crucial step of making good earnings out of your bet.
A good bettor should learn on how to win at sports betting by getting a good system that
A good bettor should always learn how to play sports betting. Having your skills improve each time you bet is a good gear towards achieving massive money out of any betting sport. The designers of the gambling made it in such a way that the amount of money people win is less than the amount they make. This will give you the crucial skills and experience needed to win the bets. This will be a good way of
When you are learning on how to win at sports betting it is good to know that the amount
Here, you will find some of the major tips you can apply when betting which will enable you bet on a winning team. You should have good knowledge on the game you are betting on. Without the knowledge of the odds you cannot be able to pick on a winning odd. It is good to learn on how to beat sports betting so that you earn more.
the participating odds on the game you want to bet. Try and work on your betting skills once you lose. You will have to know that each wager has risks.
will guide them on the ways they can bet and win. However, as a bettor you should know that you should not win on every game you bet. Use the losing chance as a springboard of harnessing new betting skills. Many people who have taken part in this game have ended up losing their money
In this case, they offered large amounts of money, but only in exchange for large gambles. Some bookies responded by giving bets that were a little more simple, for example, offering a risk-free first bet. Very often, they would entice silly gambles which stacked the odds massively in their favour.
This enticed quite a few players, but many of them left once they had got their refund or their winnings, meaning that the bookie didn’t make much money.
Some customers sign up with a bookmaker only to discover that they don’t have the range of sports that they expected, for example, no horse racing or no American sports. The stake on that bet is not returned.
Today, bookies are realising that there is an alternative way, and it actually involves giving money away.
Bookmakers are great businessmen, of course, and some of them only wanted to attract high-stakes gamblers. What has often happened is that a bookmaker will offer a 10 free bet when a new customer opens an online account.
The customer has to deposit 10, and bet 10, usually on a single bet of odds at least evens, in order to receive a 10 free bet. You don’t even have to deposit money in order to play.
Of course, the bookmaker won’t let you have it all your own way, you have to deposit some money and bet with it afterwards if you want to withdraw your winnings. And if you’ve done it correctly, you won’t even have to deposit anything!
Nobody wants to lose money, so we recommend that when you sign up with a bookmaker offering a no deposit free bet, you check out the terms and conditions. A free bet, with no deposit required, means that they have a risk-free test of the site, and the bookies have discovered that this no-deposit bet increases trust.
The No-Deposit Free Bet gives new customers free money – a 10 bet, free of charge, for anyone who signs up. This, of course, is only fair, but it’s a great way for customers to start off with a bookmaker for the first time and discover the array of markets that they have on offer.
Many bookmakers have hidden their terms and conditions in the small print, but the law obliges them to make them very clear for new customers. Follow their rules, and you will get your free bet money. In this case, bookies such as Betclic said that you could bet 30 on anything you like, and if it lost, they would refund it.
Bookmakers have realised that they have to compete strongly for new punters – and free bets have traditionally been the way to get them in. That would only apply for your first bet.. This is where the bookmaker specifies exactly how you must deposit your money and on what you must bet in order to qualify for this promotional offer.
Many people have complained, saying that this is over-complicated, and stacks the odds in the favour of the bookmaker. Some customers discover that they don’t like the way the site works
Meal/Drink Selection. Youre probably used to high and low points during your runs playing poker; big suckouts, massive pots, and the like. Eating a meal at the table or running to take a leak may not seem like a huge deal, but that salad you picked up to munch on will require your attention for the 10-15 minutes it takes to scarf down. Being able to stay focused for such a lengthy period of time will require you to be on point at all times. This isnt a suggestion to go on a diet; these are the type of fuels that will allow you to tread through the long days you have ahead of you without missing a beat at the tables.
Treat the poker tournament like a job. The less energy you expend celebrating, mouthing off, or cursing, the more you have to analyze, number crunch, and study.
Think salads, light sandwiches, veggie plates, pastas, and so forth. If you allow the adrenaline of those moments to flood through you every single time they happen, youll grind down well before the end of the day, and quickly lose energy and focus that are vital to the late day endgame. If youre a smoker, firstly, that habit will come back to haunt you in live tournaments. Live, try to only take bathroom breaks and meals or snacks during the allotted break times given during the tournament. Were talking anywhere between 8 and 20 hours, depending on the structure of the tournament. Keep your distractions to a minimum. Live tournaments and online majors can be huge grinds. The less outside sources you have clogging up your mind, the more focused you can be for a grueling day.
Keeping the flow. Greasy foods and red meat are generally the type of foods that will wear you down after eating them, so skip them if possible. Most of them feature two hour intervals between breaks, so unless you feel inclined to dash in and out of the poker room between hands, youre probably going to have to deal with no cigarettes. Youll find your tilt factor will decrease significantly by approaching the game that way, which also helps make it through the day. Alcohol is an absolute no-no, as well as energy drinks; stick with water and juice as much as possible. Online, try to keep only poker related things up on your desktop; no facebook, no downloading movies, etc. Your meals and snacks should be enough to keep you sated, but not so much that youre bogged down and weary after the dinner break. When at the table, you should be focused on poker and poker only; I dont even recommend music players at the tables anymore, unless its something you must have to keep a clear head with.
Keep everything in check; whether you win or lose big, treat like another hand as much as possible
Friday at 10am, noon, 2,4,6,8 & 10pm. Anyone who has ever been there will tell you that there is not a bad seat in the house and multiple matches can be viewed comfortably from everywhere. Entries will be taken for this tournament as players are eliminated from the main event and will be treated as first paid – first in until the event is full.
Again I would like to remind all of you how important it is to please frequent your local billiard parlors and promote and utilize the fine products of our most generous sponsors listed below. There will be billiard product vendors and on site cue repairs available for all your needs. They are the backbone of our sport!
Mike Zuglan’s Joss Northeast 9-Ball Tour and Turning Stone Resort & Casino are extremely excited and proud to present our 2012-2013 Season Finale, The $25,000 Added Turning Stone Classic XXI 9-Ball Open. So now you get Free admission, Free posters and Free bets!! All of this is brought to you courtesy of Turning Stone Resort & Casino and the Joss Northeast 9-Ball Tour!
The Turning Stone Resort and Casino, located at 5218 Patrick Road in Verona, NY, is ready to host its 21st year of the Turning Stone 9-ball Classic from Sept. This is an event for those Non Pro level players (I will decide) eliminated from the main event. Spectator admission has always been free and the intimate layout allows everyone to feel like they are a part of the action themselves. The second chance tournament on Sunday will begin at 10am and run continuously until completed.
Included in the Event Center at Turning Stone is a full service snack bar serving all of our favorite foods and adult beverages. These cues have a retail value of over $1200 each and are generously provided by Danny Janes of Joss Cues Ltd. All items are for sale and only seriously interested parties are urged to contact Mike Zuglan immediately at 518-356-7163 for info and pricing.
For an unprecedented 21st time, there will be a FULL field of 128 players competing for the title. We will also be raffling off 2 gorgeous, custom, engraved Joss Cues on Saturday at 8pm and Sunday immediately prior to the final match and you Do Not have to be present to win. Turning Stone has once again generously invited us to compete in their beautiful and spacious Event Center which is one of the best arenas in the world. This means that if each player wins a race to 4, there will be a lag for the break and a 1 game playoff to determine the match winner. Danny’s son Stephen Janes will be at our event displaying some of the finest cues made proudly in the USA.
The equipment for this world class event will once again be 16 Diamond Pro tables covered with 860 Simonis (“The Cloth Of Champions”) tournament blue cloth. The event format will be as follows: $60 Entry Fee – 32 Player Max – same rules as main event – Single Elimination – Races to 4, best 2 of 3 with the deciding set a single game sudden death. If for some reason you are unable to make it, there will be a free live stream and live scoring expertly provided by Pat Fleming’s Accu Stats Video Productions, www.azbilliards.com (Mike Howerton & Jerry Forsythe), The Joss Northeast 9-Ball Tour and Turning Stone Resort & Casino. There you will also find the 2013 portion of our upcoming 2013-2014 season schedule, results and all other pertinent tour information. 19-22. Match times are as follows: Thursday at 4,6,8 & 10pm. Check them out at www.turningstone.com .
I hope to see all of you at Turning Stone!
Also for the 21st time fans coming to Turning Stone for our event will be treated to, Free Admission, Free full size collectible posters (while supplies last & can be viewed now at www.joss9balltour.com) and once again Turning Stone will be giving away $10 free plays or match plays (your choice), EACH day of the event to players and fans. The field includes a wide range of talent from the best of the best to those striving to be the best! The complete current list (subject to change) is now available on our site www.joss9balltour.com . This tournament brings in 128 of the best players in the country, and features $25000 added to the overall prize pool.
For more information about attending, and watching some of the best billiard play around, you can contact Turning Stone Resort and Casino at 800.771.7711, or the Joss Northeast 9-Ball Tour at their website.
Mike Zuglan. For the first time we will be using the Aramith Pro Cup cue balls. Saturday at 10am, noon, 2,4,6,8 & 10pm. Sunday at 11am, 1,3,5 & the final match at 7pm. 22 at 10AM. So why not come to Turning Stone Resort & Casino September 19-22 for a great experience and 4 full days of some of the best pool you will ever witness. Turning Stone Resort & Casino is a full service resort with everything needed for a relaxing and enjoyable experience. Only one coupon per person per day will be honored. The 2014 portion of our upcoming season will be posted very soon as it is still being finalized.
I think we should at least start some kind of progression in betting.”
We got back to the Marina about 4 AM and headed for the bed.
The conclusion that can be made
These three stories are not the normal for Las Vegas. I wasnt sure about his proposal but I placed a 1 unit bet for him.
I had a 5 unit bet out on the table. He checked his hole card for blackjack.
We decided that we’d put $20 each into the game and if it disappeared, we’d go back to the Marina and call it a night.. Sometimes when I had a 5 unit bet out, Id bet 1 unit for the dealer.
Lot’s of fun at the Stardust and the dealers wound up being our friends for the night.
As he paid me off I commented If Id known for sure, those bets would have been bigger. I particularly found that there was money to be gained one night at the Marina if the dealer was your friend. We were cashing out $425. I picked up my chips, walked away, and cashed in my chips.
And, even later at the Stardust
We took a cab (even at that age, it was too far to walk) north on the strip to the Stardust. He almost imperceptibly shook his head no. I tipped the dealer as usual.
And, keeping the dealer friendly does reap benefits.
This was true at most of the casinos where I played.
Almost from the beginning we could do no wrong. Shouldnt do it too often and you should probably walk away after a couple but Ill let you know.
Playing at the Marina Hotel
The casino area of the Marina Hotel on what used to be the extreme south end of the strip (no longer around) was not a well lit and sparkling place. After wandering through the casino for a while, Sharon and I sat down at a low minimum table – probably $2.
There were nooks and crannies where it was difficult to see much beyond the table where your blackjack game was being played. I’d been varying my bets between 1 unit and 5 units. When playing later at the Stardust, we learned that having a good time is more fun when the dealer is your friend.
“If this keeps up,” I said, “we’re going to regret betting minimal amounts. We visited there often in the 1970s while working in Michigan and flying to Nevada some weekends. I’d heard that dealers sometimes cheat for the casino but this was the first time I’d heard that it worked the other way also. The blackjack popped up as he had promised.
At all casinos, whether I was ahead or behind, I was usually generous in betting for the dealer. A few hands later, he frowned and said Its time again. When I asked, the dealer would almost stop the game and call the pit person, telling them when they arrived that Don would like a food comp and generally act like there shouldnt be any question about it.
I did that. I saw other players ask for a food comp and the dealer would calmly call for the pit person and simply point at the requestor when the pit person arrived. This particular time we were on a junket to the Marina.
It was a 4 and he found another 10 in the deck to cause him to go over 21. It was late – sometime after midnight. It was a single deck game and I was reasonably sure that there were dealers that could control the deck. I looked up to see what had happened. The amazing run of luck we had at the Stardust can happen anytime but only rarely.
After several losers in a row, I called a halt to it and the dealer stacked our chips and changed them to higher denominations. People passing by smiled when they saw us having a good time.
I didn’t know what to do. Not something a player could be depend on even if they wanted to. I’m sure the dealer(s) pocketed some $100 in tips.
The progression of dealers were happy with what we were doing. He dealt for a few moments silently. I scratched the table.
The dealer paused. I put out 10 units for me and 5 units for him. If there was a procedural error that I wanted corrected or clarified, the dealer was always patient and leaned towards my point of view.
He paid it off. It seemed that every bet we made was a winner. The illegal activity only happened one evening and only at the one casino. But, even when I was behind, I continued to try to make the dealer my friend.
Since it was a low limit table, I’m feel like the dealers were happy with what had happened. He looked serious and if he wasn’t kidding me. There was joviality and good will. Place a bet for me, he said, and Ill give you a blackjack.
In both instances, dealer friendliness was necessary to the success of the sessions. We were happy with what had happened and told the story back in Michigan so often people got tired of hearing it.
Whenever I spotted a mistake when a payoff was due me, the dealer was on my side when he called a pit person over. His up card was a 10. Most dealer friendliness in Las Vegas is confined to the type described at the beginning of the article and at the Stardust later in the evening.
The streak lasted for about 2 hours and because of our bet sizes – almost all small – we had quite an array of chips in front of us.
However, at the Marina, at times dealer friendliness went beyond that.
Early one evening:
In those days I tried to count cards and knew when the deck was player favorable but wasn’t willing to bet the amounts necessary to show much of a profit.
He gave me a blackjack.
I was sitting at one of the middle tables – right where there was lots of action. The dealer looked at me. I varied my bets as usual. I received my two cards and the dealer took his. Both of us won our bets.
And, later one evening:
I was sitting at one of the outlying tables where it was really dim. I stuffed my cards under my chips and watched as the dealer turned his hole card over.
I could tell that treatment of the dealer was particularly successful when I wanted something. If I had a pleasant run of cards and was considerably ahead, Id become even more generous. We were happy with what we were doing. We also began putting out a minimum bet for the dealer after each winning hand.
I looked at my hand and needed an additional card because my total was 14. After six or eight hands we paused.
We decided on our progression (something like increasing one unit after 2 wins and dropping back to the minimum after every loss)
But some choose to go for the business route anyhow, because even if it requires failing several times, the potential “jackpot” is far larger, both in terms of money and personal satisfaction and freedom. Throw Away The Numbers
Now you look at each possible choice. In terms of making money next year, the odds are much better with the job of course, and people know that. How can you use this then?
Probabilitism? I just invented the word to describe an ideology of living life according to the odds, or more specifically, making decisions according to them. Essentially, this is the idea of investment odds operating at an intuitive or unconscious level.
You expect a pot of $250, which you multiply by the probability of winning (.2, also expressed as 20% or 1-in-5), to arrive at $50. The probability of success in the restaurant business may be 15% in general, for example, but you may be so committed and prepared that you have a 85% probability of succeeding. Life, after all, is all about making decisions, and we need some guide for making better ones.. This amount divided by your expected $40 bet equals 1.25. Researching the two professions you discover that the average novelist makes just $3,000 per year, while as a lawyer you are virtually guaranteed a decent living. You also need to take into account the “bet” or investment (time, stress, reputation, money, work) and the amount of the reward or “pot” (profits, pleasure, ability to help others, peace of mind, satisfaction,). To be a lawyer, you would have to go through years of schooling that you don’t enjoy, and work hard to pay for it, but you enjoy the work of writing, and can start with very little money.
You can keep the basic idea in mind as you make decisions, and let your intuition operate according to its guiding principle. The odds of being a successful writer are far lower, and you think you could be satisfied with either career, so you figure the probability of being happy as a lawyer is slightly better.
This isn’t enough information, however, because you haven’t taken into account your investment odds. The chance of success is lower, but if you do succeed, you’ll have much more satisfaction n your life. Your investment odds are above 1 (above 100% return according to the odds), meaning this is a good bet, the kind you’ll win with over time. In the rest of life there are many goals and values, so you have to recognize the most important one in this case. This premise is sound, but our knowledge just isn’t up to task of identifying the true odds or the true value of things when it comes to an individual life and the decisions in it. Here is the exact formula: [(Expected size of pot)(Probability of winning)] / (Your total bet from this point on).
Your Investment Odds
Let’s consider this from another perspective, that of a man who would be far happier succeeding as a movie star than in business. The reward or “pot” in this case, is potentially much higher in the case of being a novelist. We all do this intuitively already. No one can understand better than you what you value and how you value it, or even how capable you are in a given area. Probabilitism makes it a more conscious and hopefully more effective process.
Copyright Steve Gillman. You also need to take into account the amount you’ll win and the amount you’ll bet. It seems likely that many lives have been diminished by chasing after low-probability dreams when high-probability alternatives with a decent reward were there for the choosing.
In the last round of betting, you have three kings. If you bet with bad investment odds (below 1), you’ll eventually lose money. If, for whatever reason, the odds of him being a star are low enough, and he could be content inheriting his father’s business, choosing the latter would be the right decision. Your investment is also lower. This is what we already do intuitively. For deep thoughts, inventions, new product ideas, business ideas, story ideas, political and economic theories, and a free course on How To Have New Ideas, visit : www.999ideas.com
Is it better for you to be a lawyer or a novelist? Can you make this decision rationally? In poker there is one clear goal – making money. You must be the one to decide what “numbers” to plug into a formula like this.
The most common explicit guide to decision making is morality. Should you stay?
Naturally, these various factors, from how much you enjoy the process, to how probable success is, are individual. For example, when a man isn’t sure whether to start a business or keep his job, his intuition may at some point urge him to go for the business, because it has a higher probability of rewarding him according to what he values. The bet is $40 to you. To make this an explicit ideology for making decisions in life, we need to understand the idea of “investment odds,” a term used by poker players.
The idea, then, is to play the odds, but not just the odds of success. You estimate that you have a 1-in-5 probability of winning if you stay to the end. Now to apply this to life decisions.
Actually, you have to go beyond the odds of winning the hand, which are merely “event-odds.” The odds of a specific event occurring (your hand winning) aren’t enough information. Many people, for example, face a decision like whether to go get a job or to start a business. However, this only eliminates some choices, leaving us with a sub-set of acceptable ones. Money will help with that, but it is a lesser goal, and only important to the extent to which it helps promote the primary goal.
The “numbers” in such “life calculations” as these are guesses, and not even very educated ones, so probabilitism isn’t ready to be a systematic tool for decision making. With these many possible options, we have just the usual guides to decision and action, which include feelings, advice from others, and our general intuition about which choices are better.
From that intuitive part of the process, probabilitism extracts the general idea of making choices based on the probabilities of them giving us the most of what we value. You might see that the highest possible level of life-satisfaction is of primary importance